Stat Attack – Luton v AFC Bournemouth

Here is the xG timeline for the Luton game. I couldn’t follow this game live but the stats are less encouraging than people’s view of the game. AFCB hit the post twice in the first 15 minutes but both were hard chances that you wouldn’t expect to score from. The first was a Tavernier free kick (rated 1 in 30) and the second was a Kluivert shot (1 in 20). At half time neither side had created a good chance and the xG was Luton 0.23 and AFCB 0.19. Luton had the best chance after the break with the ball falling to Morris with his shot beaten away well by Neto (1 in 12). Soon after we had taken the lead, Tavernier striking from outside the box, but unlike Kluivert’s earlier effort, this was just inside the post (rated 1 in 30). The game remained bitty, with Morris hitting the same post Bournemouth had hit twice (1 in 30) and at 70 minutes, the xG was Luton 0.58 AFCB 0.29. Luton then began their comeback, Clark made a run through the centre, with Bournemouth players not wanting to give away the foul, a challenge between Kelly and Berry saw the ball fall fortuitously for Clark who had continued his run and he put it neatly into the corner (1 in 5). Then in the final minute, Morris took advantage of a Zabarnyi slip to guide the ball into the far corner from close range following a left-wing cross (1 in 2). There were no more chances and the final xG was Luton 1.40, AFCB 0.34. Understat had it closer but also thought Luton had the higher value (1.30 vs 0.62).