Grading all 15 first-round QBs taken in past five NFL drafts

The 2024 NFL Draft, held on April 25-27 in Detroit, could have as many as five quarterbacks selected in the first round. It’s doubtful all of them are destined for success.

In fact, after examining the NFL careers of 15 QBs who were first-round picks over the past five drafts, it’s fair to say only six or seven teams made the right choice.

Note: We did not evaluate 2019 Commanders selection Dwayne Haskins, who died in an accident involving a dump truck in 2022.

With that in mind, here are the first-round quarterbacks drafted since 2019, accompanied by a grade based on how their careers have unfolded.

2019

Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals (first overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 66.6 percent completion rate, 15,647 passing yards, 94 TD passes, 46 interceptions, 2,448 rushing yards, 26 rushing TDs

The Cardinals wisely pulled the plug on the Josh Rosen experiment after one season to draft Murray, and while the team is amid another rebuilding phase, the two-time Pro Bowler is far from a bust. Murray has made one playoff appearance, and based on his performance following his return from a 2022 ACL tear, it might not be too long before he propels Arizona back to the postseason.

GRADE: B+

Daniel Jones | New York Giants (sixth overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 64.3 percent completion rate, 12,512 passing yards, 62 TD passes, 40 interceptions, 1,914 rushing yards; 13 rushing TDs

One of the most surprising picks of the 2019 NFL Draft, Jones dealt with turnover issues, injuries and multiple coaching changes early in his career. He signed a four-year, $160M deal after leading New York to the playoffs in 2022, but his ineffective play and a season-ending ACL tear in 2023 could force the team to select his replacement in this year’s NFL Draft.

GRADE: C-

2020

Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals (first overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 68 percent completion rate; 14,083 passing yards, 97 TD passes, 37 interceptions, 605 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs

Although Burrow has suffered two season-ending injuries to start his career, it’s clear the Bengals made the right choice by selecting the former Heisman Trophy winner. Burrow, the only active QB to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, has already led Cincinnati to one Super Bowl appearance and when healthy is in the conversation for being a top-three quarterback.

GRADE: A+

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (fifth overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 66.9 percent completion rate, 12,639 passing yards, 81 TD passes, 37 interceptions, six rushing TDs

Although he has established himself as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, it’s fair to say Tagovailoa wasn’t worth being selected fifth overall, especially considering players at his position who were drafted after him (Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts). To secure a massive contract extension, Tagovailoa must prove he can win meaningful games despite his questionable arm strength and lack of mobility.

GRADE: B-

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (sixth overall) 

KEY NFL STATS: 66.6 percent completion rate, 17,223 passing yards, 114 TD passes, 42 interceptions, 911 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs

The Chargers have only made the playoffs once (and collapsed once there) since drafting Herbert, but the one-time Pro Bowler is one of the NFL’s best arm talents. Aside from being the first player in league history to throw for at least 4,000 yards in each of his first three seasons, Herbert ranks third among QBs in passing yards and fourth in touchdown passes since he was drafted.

GRADE: A

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (26th overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 63.7 percent completion rate, 4,765 passing yards, 35 TD passes, 14 interceptions, four rushing TDs

Green Bay shocked many on draft night by electing to not give Aaron Rodgers another weapon to gear up for a potential Super Bowl run and instead select the franchise’s quarterback of the future. After sitting behind Rodgers for three years, Love excelled in his first season as a starter in 2023, ranking second in the NFL in TD passes (32) and seventh in passing yards (4,159) while guiding the Packers to the NFC divisional round.

GRADE: A-

2021

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (first overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 63.8 percent completion rate, 11,770 passing yards, 58 TD passes, 39 interceptions, 964 rushing yards; 11 rushing TDs

Lawrence hasn’t lived up to his generational prospect billing, but when he has been healthy — and not playing under Urban Meyer’s tutelage — he’s a competent starting quarterback. Even so, 2024 will be a career-defining season for Lawrence, as we’ll get a clearer picture of where he stacks up against his peers in the quarterback hierarchy.

GRADE: B

Zach Wilson, New York Jets (second overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 57 percent completion rate, 6,293 passing yards, 23 TD passes, 25 interceptions, five rushing TDs

The BYU product’s strong arm captivated the Jets, though it soon became evident the team had drafted another bust, so it replaced him with Rodgers last offseason. Following Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles injury, the Jets turned back to Wilson, who struggled, resulting in him being benched several times. He’ll probably be traded or released soon.

GRADE: F

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (third overall) 

KEY NFL STATS: 54.9 percent completion rate, 797 passing yards, five TD passes, three interceptions, 235 rushing yards, one rushing TD

17 starts at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State were enough for San Francisco to send Miami three first-round picks for the right to select Lance, who played in eight games across two seasons before being traded to Dallas. The Lance deal is arguably the worst draft trade in NFL history, but the 49ers struck gold with their 262nd pick in 2022 (Brock Purdy) to offset the loss.

GRADE: F

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (11th overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 60.3 percent completion rate, 6,674 passing yards, 40 TD passes, 30 interceptions, 2,220 rushing yards; 14 rushing TDs

In a last-ditch effort to save his job, former Bears GM Ryan Pace traded up to make Fields Chicago’s franchise QB, but the deal didn’t pan out for either party. Fields has displayed exceptional rushing ability in the NFL, but his limitations as a passer prompted Chicago to trade him to Pittsburgh this offseason so it can presumably draft USC’s Caleb Williams with the top overall pick in 2024.

GRADE: D

Mac Jones, New England Patriots (15th overall) 

KEY NFL STATS: 66.1 percent completion rate, 8,918 passing yards, 46 TD passes, 36 interceptions, one rushing TD

It initially appeared Jones was on his way to being the next great Patriots quarterback, as he led the team to the playoffs as a rookie and earned a Pro Bowl nod. After struggling mightily with turnover issues over the past two seasons (23 interceptions), New England shipped Jones to his hometown Jaguars, where he will serve as Lawrence’s backup.

GRADE: C-

2022

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (20th overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 62.6 percent completion rate, 4,474 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 13 interceptions, four rushing TDs

The Steelers attempted to rectify the mistake of passing on a certain Pitt quarterback in 1983 — shhh, Dan Marino — by making former Panther Pickett the successor to future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger. However, it quickly became apparent Pickett, whose 1.8 percent touchdown percentage is the worst in NFL history among QBs with at least 500 passing attempts, isn’t a starting-caliber quarterback, leading Pittsburgh to trade him to Philadelphia this offseason.

GRADE: F

2023

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (first overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 59.8 percent completion rate, 2,877 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 10 interceptions

The Panthers executed what may already be the worst trade in NFL history to move up to select the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, only to end up with the league’s worst record in 2023. No rookie quarterback would have succeeded in Carolina’s disastrous situation, but the undersized Young (5-foot-10, 204 pounds) didn’t show much promise through the first 16 games of his career.

GRADE: D

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (second overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 63.9 percent completion rate, 4,108 passing yards, 23 TD passes, five interceptions, 167 rushing yards, three rushing TDs

Missing out on the chance to select Young could prove to be the best thing to happen to the Texans because Stroud enjoyed one of the greatest seasons by a rookie quarterback. Stroud set a game record for a rookie with 470 yards passing and five TD passes in Week 9. Most importantly, he led Houston to the AFC South title and the divisional round of the playoffs.

GRADE: A+

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (fourth overall)

KEY NFL STATS: 59.5 percent completion rate, 577 passing yards, three TD passes, one interception, 136 rushing yards, four rushing TDs

Despite Richardson completing just 53.8 percent of his passes during his final season at Florida, his otherworldly athleticism convinced the Indianapolis Colts to select him fourth overall. Although the dynamic 6-foot-4, 244-pounder played just four games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, he showed enough flashes for the Colts to be excited about his future in HC Shane Steichen’s offense.

GRADE: B