2025 NBA Season Preview: Southwest Division

My preview of the 2025 NBA season continues with a look at the Southwest Division, home of the NBA Champion runner-up Dallas Mavericks and several other teams angling for deep playoff runs.

Dallas Mavericks

Additions: Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kessler Edwards (two-way)

Subtractions: Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr., Greg Brown III

Other: Re-signed Markieff Morris

Outlook: The Mavs got all the way to the NBA Finals last year from the 5^th seed, a blazing run that ended in a Celtics’ buzzsaw. The Mavs did not sit on their laurels, instead swapping out most of their wing room in the offseason. I’m relatively agnostic on most of their moves – Klay is a better offensive player than any they had last year, but Jones is the best defender of the group. Overall, it’s probably a slight upgrade. The Mavs are really counting on a full year of Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington, acquired midseason, alongside further development from second-year player Dereck Lively II, to keep their squad moving forward this year. Those are solid bets, but the real reason for Mavs optimism is of course the continued presence of Luka Doncic, a top-five player in the NBA and a single-handed floor raiser for competitive basketball. The Mavs will be very good, though I am a bit hesitant to say they should be favorites to win the West again.

Prediction: 51-31 (Last year predicted 46-36, actually 50-32)

Memphis Grizzlies

Additions: Zach Edey (10^th pick in 2024 Draft), Jaylen Wells (39^th pick in 2024 Draft), Cam Spencer (two-way), Jay Huff (two-way)

Subtractions: Ziaire Williams, Trey Jemison, Lamar Stevens

Other:

Outlook: The Grizzlies were the team I was most wrong on last year. Star guard Ja Morant only played nine games between suspension and injury, and the rest of the roster was ravaged by various injuries as well. But the Grizzlies are healthy going into this season, and were a regular season wins machine with fairly similar rosters in 2022 and 2023. The big unknown is Zach Edey, one of the most decorated college players in modern history and the Grizzlies’ new starting center. Edey is a dominant force down low, but his ability to play pick and roll defense at the NBA level is a question. If he’s a positive presence inside for the Grizz, they have a very strong starting unit, solid depth (though not as good as a couple years ago), and star talent in Ja, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane. I think the Grizzlies will have a potent regular season, but their ability to go deep in the playoffs might come down to Edey as well as further development from Ja. I’m a tad skeptical, but the Grizzlies could definitely surprise me.

Prediction: 49-33 (Last year predicted 50-32, actually 27-55)

New Orleans Pelicans

Additions: Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi (21^st pick in 2024 Draft), Daniel Theis, Antonio Reeves (47^th pick in 2024 Draft), Karlo Matkovic, Trey Jamison, Jamal Cain (two-way)

Subtractions: Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, Cody Zeller, E.J. Liddell

Other:

Outlook: I’m really not sure what to do with the Pelicans. They were pretty good last year, are a fairly young team that can continue to grow internally, and added some talent in the offseason. However, I just don’t think their talent fits. With Valanciunas and Nance gone, the Pelicans don’t have a starting level center unless Missi is good enough right away – a lot to ask of a rookie. Dejounte Murray is a nice player (albeit overrated in my opinion), but he and Brandon Ingram operate from similar spots on the floor and have relatively similar strengths and weaknesses. Is a Murray-Herb Jones-Ingram-Trey Murphy-Zion Williamson starting lineup capable of getting stops or rebounding? If you sub in a center for one of the wings, will they have enough shooting? The Pelicans have talent and their depth is solid, but they really need to make some sort of roster consolidation move for me to feel good about them being anything more than a play-in team again.

Prediction: 46-36 (Last year predicted 44-38, actually 49-33)

Houston Rockets

Additions: Reed Sheppard (3^rd pick in 2024 Draft), Jack McVeigh (two-way), N’Faly Dante (two-way)

Subtractions: Reggie Bullock, Nate Hinton, Boban Marjanovic

Other: Re-signed Aaron Holiday

Outlook: The Rockets, are, incredibly, bringing back their top 12 players in minutes played from their 2024 roster. They are thus counting almost entirely on internal development to bring them from 11^th place to the play-in race. And there is reason for optimism – Alperen Sengun is on an All-Star trajectory, Jabari Smith Jr. took a big step forward in his second season, and Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore had promising rookie campaigns. Between those guys, Jalen Green, Tari Eason, and rookie Reed Sheppard (my top prospect in the 2024 Draft), the Rockets have plenty of avenues for upside. If a couple of their young cadre of prospects have breakthroughs to stardom the Rockets could really surge into the postseason mix. As it is though, I think they might still be one year away. But they are getting close.

Prediction: 43-39 (Last year predicted 28-54, actually 41-41)

San Antonio Spurs

Additions: Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle (4^th pick in 2024 Draft), Harrison Ingram (two-way)

Subtractions: Cedi Osman, Dom Barlow, Devonte’ Graham
Other: Re-signed Charles Bassey, Re-signed Sandro Mamukelashvili
Outlook: The Spurs are keeping their rebuild on a fairly slow trajectory, but are clearly hoping to take a step forward this year. One of the Spurs’ biggest issues last season was incompetent point guard play, so adding Chris Paul, even in the twilight of his career, will help with stabilizing the offense and keeping the trains running on time. The Spurs were also a very bad shooting team last year, so Harrison Barnes, even though he’s also in the downswing of his career, will help space the floor and provide more veteran competence. But really, the Spurs are just hoping that Victor Wembanyama, after an insane rookie season, will reach another level in his second year, and go from fringe All-Star to All-NBA. It’s within his reach, as the young Frenchman might already be the best defender and rim-running threat in the league. If other young players like Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Tre Jones can take steps forward too, maybe the Spurs could be frisky in the play-in race. But they are likely still too young and too impotent on offense to really make much noise in the West this year.

Prediction: 31-51 (Last year predicted 26-56, actually 22-60)